Instrument: XAUUSD
Timeframe: 4H
Market Context
– XAUUSD continues to trade within a medium-term range established on November 14.
– This week opened near the middle of the range following last week’s bearish reversal, with price continuing to face downward pressure.
Key Observations ️️
Weekly Open Dynamics:
– Price opened near 2650 (weekly open), testing the highs before printing a Short-Term High (STH) with a strong bearish engulfing pattern on Monday.
Midweek Breakdown:
– Price consolidated above 2650 before breaking down during Tuesday’s London session, closing below the recent Short-Term Low (STL).
– A slight retracement occurred into the breakdown zone, followed by continued bearish momentum.
Wednesday Expansion:
– A bearish expansion broke below the Long-Term Low (2605) at 5:00 AM, creating a significant move. Price stayed within this expansion range until the weekly close near 2625.
Learnings
– Shorts above 2650 targeting below 2600 were the optimal play this week.
– Consolidation at key levels (e.g., 2650) provided clear clues for directional moves.
– The midweek expansion highlighted the importance of monitoring price action near round numbers and reacting to high-impact news events.
Next Steps
Monitor Key Price Action Patterns:
– Focus on consolidations near significant round numbers like 2650.
– Watch for breakdowns followed by retracements into prior zones before continuation.
Integrate This Week’s Insights:
– Apply observations from this week’s price behavior:
– Early-week consolidation above 2650 before the breakdown.
– Midweek expansion below 2600 followed by profit-taking into the weekend.
Plan Around High-Impact News:
– Use the economic calendar to anticipate volatility and key moves.
– Develop strategies to capitalize on post-news directional shifts, particularly during major announcements like Core PCE and FOMC events.
News Recap
– Monday: Flash PMI readings.
– Wednesday: FOMC rate decision, projections, and press conference.
– Friday: Core PCE Price Index (0.1%) and UoM Consumer Sentiment (74.0).
Let’s carry forward these lessons to approach next week with clarity, focus, and discipline.#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading