BTCUSD
Revisiting past market structures, it’s striking how Bitcoin’s price action in early 2025 resembles the patterns seen in early 2024. The comparison between the two charts suggests a clear fractal—an almost identical deviation above the range highs, followed by a liquidation event under the range lows before a reversal.
In early 2024, Bitcoin’s price deviated above the established range, trapping breakout traders before swiftly rejecting and flushing out liquidity below the range lows. That deviation marked the absolute bottom before a strong recovery, as the market left behind those who were waiting for even lower prices.
Now, in early 2025, we’re witnessing an eerily similar setup:
A deviation above resistance that lured in late longs, followed by a sharp drop below support.
A liquidity flush below the range lows, where overleveraged longs are shaken out.
Sentiment has shifted bearish again, with traders now expecting $70-75K just as they anticipated $35-31K last year.
While I won’t completely rule out lower prices, I find it unlikely that Bitcoin will drop as deep as many expect. The fractal suggests that we may already be near the bottom, setting up for a reversal.
This is why I’ve been scaling out of my protective shorts and accumulating spot positions. As always, patience is key—market reversals happen when the majority least expect them.
Keep an eye on confluences, stay sharp, and don’t get left behind.