Dow Jones Industrial Average – Buy Setup
Technical: U.S. markets have struggled recently due to uncertainty over tariffs imposed by President Trump. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken key support levels, the Dow remains resilient, holding the critical 41,648 support. A break below would confirm a large double-top pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. This is a pivotal moment. The rebound from overnight lows is encouraging, but with the U.S. CPI release tomorrow, caution is warranted. While speculative, COT and seasonal data favour a short-term move higher.
Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increasing long interest in the Dow, suggesting “smart money” accumulation.
Seasonal: Historically, from March 12 – May 2, the Dow has posted gains 84% of the time, averaging +3.68% over the past 25 years.
Setup:
- Entry: 41,800 – 42,000
- Stop Loss: 41,285 (below the Nov 2024 low at 41,648)
- Target: 44,290
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