We can see GBPUSD retrace a tad further up to the Volume Imbalance that was created over the weekend of April 4th – 7th. After Price made its High @ 1.3207, it was immediately rejected back down below the Past Level of Support that is now showing signs of Resistance!
– Following that Higher High not only resulted in a Lower Low but also sent the RSI under 50 into Bearish Territory!
Now in the ICT Methodology of Volume Imbalances, Price is likely to Test or Fill the Imbalance, then once satisfied, has a high potential to turn the opposite direction. Now a Pullback to Fill the Imbalance would land Price right at the 38.2% Fibonacci Level @ 1.28984 where if Bulls are unable to push Price back above, would be an excellent Shorting Opportunity for Bears to overcome.
– RSI is now below the 50 suggesting Bulls have lost steam and strengthens the potential for more downside to occur but that would call for a Break and Retest Scenario on the Rising Support.
Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will be releasing the CPI y/y and m/m results where analysts believe there to be a .3% decrease in inflation forecasting a 2.5% CPI for March from the previous 2.8% for February. Given this, the FOMC ” do not plan to come to rescue Trump with rate cuts” and insist that all the Tariff pressure will actually be a reasoning for Inflation to Rise! So if CPI ends up printing Hotter than Expected (Higher), we could see a renewed strength in the USD.