USD/JPY Daily Technical Outlook – April 11, 2025
Overview:
The USD/JPY pair experienced a significant decline on Friday, opening at 145.22, reaching a high of 145.50, and a low of 142.04, before closing at 142.30. This downward movement reflects the continuation of the bearish trend from earlier in the week, influenced by safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen amid escalating trade tensions and weaker U.S. economic data.
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Current Market Structure:
After a period of consolidation, the pair broke below key support levels, signaling strong selling momentum. This move comes amid concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency.
Key Resistance Levels:
143.45: The previous support level, now acting as immediate resistance. A break above this level could indicate a potential reversal.
145.08/145.91: A significant resistance zone. A move above this area could challenge the bearish outlook.
147.85: A major resistance area, which could be a target for buyers if the bullish trend resumes.
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Key Support Levels:
142.04: The low for the day, which acts as immediate support. A stay above this level may prevent further declines.
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139.59: A significant support level. A break below this could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
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137.92: Strong support, marking a previous high from March 2023.
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Price Action Patterns:
The strong bearish candles in recent days indicate dominance by sellers. The breakout below previous support levels and the formation of lower lows support the continuation of the downtrend. However, traders should watch for potential reversal patterns as the price approaches key support areas.
🧭 Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If USD/JPY holds above 142.04, the pair may attempt a rebound towards 143.45 and potentially 145.08/145.91, driven by short-term profit-taking and potential easing of risk-off sentiment.
Bearish Scenario: If USD/JPY fails to sustain above 142.04, a decline to 139.59 could occur. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards 137.92.
Conclusion:
USD/JPY is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, influenced by safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook. A sustained break below support levels could lead to further declines. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and stay informed on global economic developments.
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Note: This analysis is based on data available up to April 11, 2025. Always monitor the latest developments and apply appropriate risk management when trading.