EUR/CAD Short Setup – Stop Run and Weekly Reversal in Play
We started the week with a burst of bullish activity on EUR/CAD — but it’s looking more like a liquidity grab than genuine strength.
Sunday Open: Within 12 hours of the weekly open (during thin liquidity), price broke last week’s high — a level that held all of last week — hinting at a possible engineered stop run.
Backdrop: The ECB’s 25bps rate cut last Thursday (April 17) continues to pressure the euro fundamentally. This morning’s move likely reflects faux volume aimed at clearing out late sellers before a reversal.
Session Structure:
Asia: Extended the highs slightly.
London: Delivered a sharp drive up, breaking the weekly high mid-session — likely the final liquidity tap before reversing.
Now: London has closed. We’re heading into New York with momentum slowing and key reversal patterns forming.
Technical Confluence:
15-Min Chart: Clear double top.
1H Chart: Inside bar fakeout forming — breakout failed, candle about to close bearish.
These formations align with a classic market maker reversal model following a stop raid.
Bias: Bearish.
Targeting a move down to 1.53319 — a clean demand zone and structural target.
Stops above 1.6000 would be ideal for institutions to aim at, but I don’t believe we’ll reach that high. The signs of exhaustion are already visible.
Macro View: With euro weakness post-ECB and potential dollar strength building this week (especially with Trump pressuring global trade again), this may be the start of a decisive trend move to the downside.
Let’s see how New York handles this. If momentum confirms, we may be at the very beginning of a significant shift.