Gold pulled back after testing the 3500 level. A reversal in rhetoric from former President Trump regarding China, along with some breathing room provided by Powell, eased market tensions. Reports indicate that meetings with executives from TGT, HD, and WMT influenced Trump to reconsider his ultra-aggressive stance, as he recognized the imminent risks of inflation and potential supply chain disruptions that could begin within weeks. Additionally, rare earths could become a significant problem if a deal with China isn’t reached soon.

The 3500 level may now act as a major long-term top—provided the situation doesn’t deteriorate further. Long-term topping signals for gold had already started to emerge; please refer to our earlier post for more details:

Gold Skyrockets Like It's 2011: Are We There Yet?

Short-Term Outlook

On the 15-minute chart, the downtrend has been broken. While geopolitical risks, particularly involving Ukraine and Russia remain elevated, gold may attempt to recover some lost ground. If the current corrective uptrend holds and 3350 is broken, a move toward slightly above 3400 could begin. However, if gold drops below 3325, there is a risk of another round of profit-taking and renewed selling pressure.

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