Chart: Daily AUDNZD
Setup: Supply-zone rejection into established downtrend
Analysis
Trend Context:
― Since mid-February price has been making lower highs & lower lows, confirming a bearish bias.
Supply Zone:
― 1.0980–1.1035 area (highlighted) has flipped from support to resistance, printed clear bearish wicks on multiple daily closes.
Fibonacci Confluence:
― Entry at 1.1000 lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the March–April leg down.
Structural Support:
― Next major demand cluster sits at 1.0650–1.0680 (your TP zone), then psychological 1.0500.
Trade Details
Entry (Sell): 1.10000
Stop-Loss: 1.10346 (just above the supply zone)
Take-Profit: 1.06568 (below April swing low)
Risk: 34.6 pips
Reward: 343.2 pips
R : R: ~9.9 : 1
️ Execution & Management
Entry Trigger: Wait for a bearish daily close (engulfing or pin-bar) back inside 1.0980–1.1035.
Stop Adjustment: After +50 pips, move SL to breakeven to neutralize risk.
Scaling: Consider taking 50% off at 1.0850 (swing-to-swing) and letting the remainder run to 1.0657.
Catalyst Watch: Be mindful of RBA/NZ CPI events and AUD or NZD-related commodity data.