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The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index matched expectations, confirming that inflation is slowing down. Although it has not yet reached the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%, there are ongoing concerns about economic slowdown, suggesting that a gradual rate cut may be implemented, with the first rate cut expected in September.
Meanwhile, the market anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in September and December. However, the ECB has expressed uncertainty and has refrained from making a firm commitment to rate cuts, adding to the uncertainty.
– The FOMC meeting will be held from July 30 to August 1.
– Germany’s July Consumer Price Index will be announced on July 30.
– The Eurozone’s July Consumer Price Index will be announced on July 31.
– The Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting is on August 1.
– The U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be released on August 2.
It appears that EUR/USD is facing resistance at the high point and is pulling back slightly. This high point coincides with the high of the medium-term downtrend and the high of the short-term uptrend, suggesting strong resistance in this area. It is expected that a bottom will be formed around the 1.07000 or 1.04500 lines due to this resistance. However, with many variables such as the FOMC, Eurozone CPI, and U.S. employment figures, it’s also important to consider the possibility of breaking through this resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks above the 1.10000 line, we will prepare a new strategy aiming for a high around the 1.12000 line.