Market Overview
– BTC is unfolding a classic Elliott Wave impulse, currently correcting in Wave 4.
– This correction has established strong support near the $94,500-$96,000 zone, aligning with the 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement of Wave 3.
– The Wave 5 target is projected at $115,000, based on Fibonacci extensions and historical price momentum.
Technical Analysis
1. Wave Count Breakdown:
– Wave 1: Initiation of bullish momentum with a strong breakout.
– Wave 2: Healthy retracement establishing a higher low.
– Wave 3: Extended bullish rally, peaked at $108,000, showing typical impulsive strength.
– Wave 4: Ongoing corrective phase, respecting key Fibonacci retracement levels.
– Wave 5 (Projected): Anticipated bullish rally toward $115,000, potentially extending to $118,000 under strong momentum.
2. Key Levels to Watch:
– Support Zones:
– $93,000-$94,000: Key demand zone where buying interest is evident.
– Break below $92,000 invalidates the bullish Elliott Wave structure.
– Resistance Levels:
– $108,000: Wave 4 high, pivotal for confirming a bullish breakout.
– $115,000: Projected Wave 5 target based on 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 3.
– $118,000: Secondary extension level if bullish momentum sustains.
3. Fibonacci Analysis:
– Wave 4 Correction:
– Aligns with the 38.2%-50% retracement of Wave 3, a standard correction zone.
– Wave 5 Projection:
– Targets 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 3, landing near $115,000.
4. Trendline Analysis:
– A rising trendline connecting Waves 1 and 3 provides structural support.
– Parallel projection supports the expected upward movement toward Wave 5.
Momentum and Indicators
1. RSI (14):
– Wave 4 correction shows RSI consolidating in the 40-50 zone, indicative of oversold conditions.
– A bullish crossover above 50-60 will confirm the start of Wave 5.
2. MACD (12, 26, 9):
– MACD histogram flattening during Wave 4 indicates diminishing bearish pressure.
– A bullish crossover on MACD lines will serve as a strong signal for Wave 5 initiation.
3. Volume Profile:
– Accumulation in the $93,000-$94,000 zone reflects strong institutional interest.
– Wave 5 should see a notable rise in volume as price approaches $108,000 and breaks out toward $115,000.
Trading Plan
1. Entry Points:
– Accumulate positions in the $94,500 – $96,000 support zone.
– Add on breakout confirmation above $108,000 for conservative entries.
2. Stop-Loss:
– Place below $92,000 to limit downside risk and invalidate the current wave structure.
3. Profit Targets:
– Primary Target: $115,000 (Wave 5 Fibonacci extension).
– Stretch Target: $118,000 if momentum sustains post-breakout.
4. Risk Management:
– Risk no more than 1%-2% of capital per trade.
Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario:
– Price holds the $94,000-$96,000 zone and breaks above $108,000 with volume confirmation.
– Wave 5 achieves $115,000, with possible extensions to $118,000.
2. Bearish Scenario:
– Failure to hold $92,000 invalidates the current Elliott Wave structure.
– Price may retrace deeper, targeting the $88,000-$90,000 zone.
Pro Summary
BTC is setting up for an impulsive Wave 5 rally, with $115,000 as the primary target. A breakout above $108,000 will confirm the next leg of the bullish trend. Maintain a disciplined approach with stops below $92,000 and adjust positions as the price action unfolds.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should do your own research or consult with a professional before making any investment decisions.