Bear Hedge Trigger Hit – It’s Risk-Off This Week | SPX Analysis 31 Mar 2025
Well, it’s officially the start of a new week… and the end of the month. A time when markets often go a bit boing-boing as portfolio managers do their monthly “window dressing.” But let’s not get distracted by the glitter – Friday’s price action just ripped the rug out from under the bulls.
My SPX slippers barely had time to get comfy before I was forced to swap them for spiked bear boots. Again.
Friday’s break through my bear hedge trigger flipped the script, and now I’m locked into bear mode until the charts convince me otherwise. And right now? They’re not even trying.
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Bear Flag Breakdown: What the Charts Are Screaming
Let’s break it down trader-to-trader…
Friday’s move confirmed the break of a textbook bear flag.
My target for this bear swing now sits at 5140, and unless we break above 5700, the bear case remains fully intact.
Short-term? I’m bearish through 5500, watching 5555 as a gamma inflection point which could accelerate the bear move.
Here’s what makes this particularly spicy:
Overnight futures are down nearly 1% – not the Monday morning bounce you’d expect if bulls were in charge.
GEX is stacked with puts – if we breach 5555, market makers may accelerate the drop by hedging and reducing positive gamma exposure.
Momentum is gaining. And it feels like we’ve seen this film before…
️ Rewind to 2022…
Remember that slow grind lower in 2022 where every bounce got sold, and traders kept trying to “buy the dip” only to get steamrolled?
Yeah. This move is shaping up the same way.
A pattern break. A bearish continuation. And if we follow the 2022 script… buckle up. The bears may just be getting started, and the rest of the year could get nasty.
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Expert Insights: Avoid These Bear Market Mistakes
Mistake #1: Trading What You Hope Will Happen
Stop “buying the dip” because you want it to bounce. Trade what’s in front of you.
Mistake #2: Using the Wrong System for This Environment
Bullish systems don’t work in bear trends. You need a mechanical system that thrives on volatility (like mine).
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Fun Fact
In 2018, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in December alone, marking one of the worst year-end sell-offs in history. The culprit? A mix of Fed tightening and market-wide panic.
🧐 Fast forward to today… and while the catalyst may differ, market structure patterns have a funny way of rhyming, don’t they?