Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis we shared last week, update it, and discuss the conditions for the upcoming week!
Weekly Updates:
Starting from Monday to Wednesday, we’ll cover , Monday: Bitcoin and Dominance analysis , Tuesday: Ethereum and ETH/BTC analysis , Wednesday: Gold analysis
These are in addition to our daily analyses.
⏳ Previous Analysis Review:
In our last analysis, we expected a move towards the key resistance level of 71468 and a subsequent rise to higher levels. However, this didn’t happen. On the first attempt to break this resistance, the volume was adequate, but on the second attempt, the volume significantly dropped, resulting in a heavy rejection.
This rejection was linked to the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index). Essentially, the dollar’s strength increased, not Bitcoin’s value decreasing. After this news and a sharp bearish candle, Bitcoin is now ranging with minimal volume.
Higher Time Frame Analysis:
On the weekly time frame, Bitcoin, after its first contact with the 71710 resistance and a subsequent rejection, faced a correction. Post-correction, it’s moving towards the resistance but with very low and unacceptable volume, indicating traders’ indecision—meaning almost no one is opening positions on Bitcoin.
️ Daily Time Frame Analysis:
On the daily time frame, after a strong upward trend, Bitcoin has been ranging for about 100 days, which is completely natural. After a strong upward trend, prices need to rest, either through price correction or time correction, and during this period, the market tries to wear out the participants.
You should know that financial markets are not designed to be stagnant; they must move to give profit to someone, whether it’s you, another trader, or the exchanges. These price movements are meant to tire people out and make them step away from the charts, only to return and open positions impulsively during a FOMO phase.
️ Four-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
In the four-hour time frame, we’re still within a price range. The fixed volume range tool indicates this. I use this tool to avoid opening positions when amidst high volumes but make sure to have positions when breaking through high volumes—it’s a sort of deterrent tool for me.
Long Position Strategy:
We can open a long position after breaking the 71710 resistance, but keep in mind that there’s a possibility of a fake breakout. If we approach this resistance with increasing volume, you can set a stop-buy in advance.
Short Position Strategy:
Currently, I’m not opening short positions on Bitcoin. I’ll wait for a break below 67185 and if Bitcoin dominance is rising, I’ll only use this as a confirmation for shorting altcoins, not Bitcoin itself.
️️ Bitcoin Dominance:
Bitcoin dominance broke the 54.71 resistance we identified and continues its upward trend. It could move towards the 55.71% and 56.09% resistances.
For the upcoming week, it’s better to focus on long positions in Bitcoin or coins that are rising in the BTC pair, such as ADA/BTC, SOL/BTC, or JASMY/BTC, to gain more profit. For short positions, I’ll use the break below the 67185 support as confirmation for shorting altcoins. Keep in mind, dominance levels can change during the week; I’ll provide an update on this soon.
Liquidation Heatmap:
We may soon add a new section to our analysis, covering where long and short positions get liquidated, causing whale candles on the chart. Currently, many short positions could get liquidated between 72100 and 72600, potentially pumping the price as short liquidations essentially open long positions. More on on-chain data analysis soon, but keep this in mind for now.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 67185, 64512
Resistance: 71710, 73438
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️ Also, please remember that I’m just an analyst, and this isn’t financial advice. We’re here to stay in the market and maximize profits by adhering to risk and capital management principles.