1. Current Market Structure
Price is currently moving within a small ascending channel after rejecting the red zone (IFVG 1D), but this move might be a bear trap.
️ A downside breakout is likely, aiming to sweep liquidity lower.
2. Bigger Picture Outlook
The market could drop toward the grey support zone (below $91,500) before a potential bullish recovery.
Overall structure remains dependent on a key macro catalyst, particularly Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech.
3. Key Technical Observations
🟥 IFVG 1D: Clean rejection from this zone, increasing selling pressure.
Suspicious ascending channel: Often a corrective pattern before continuation downward.
🟩 FVG 1D below: A potential liquidity zone, likely to trigger a reaction if tested.
4. Short-Term Expectations
Favored bearish scenario:
Channel breakdown
Liquidity sweep
Retest of the grey support area (~$91,000)
Bullish reaction possible afterwards, depending on how price behaves at support and macro conditions.
5. Upcoming Catalysts
Powell’s speech on Wednesday: Highly anticipated by the market.
A rate cut could support BTC, but short-term uncertainty keeps pressure on price.
Until then, expect high volatility as the market seeks clarity.
Conclusion
Current price action suggests a bear trap with a likely liquidity grab to the downside.
Key levels to watch:
Grey support zone (~$91,000)
Green FVG 1D (~$89,000)
Market reaction post-FOMC
⏳ Until the FED decision, the market remains fragile and liquidity-driven.