Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a red February with a correction that touched its 1D MA200 and almost hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), spurring massive liquidations and ETF outflows. On the wider picture though and the long-term technical trend of this Cycle, this looks nothing more than a normal technical pull-back at the start of the last year of the Bull Cycle.
More specifically, since the start of the current Bull Cycle following the November 2022 market bottom, BTC has been replicating to almost perfection the 2015 – 2017 Bull Cycle. As this chart on the 1W time-frame shows, every medium-term top and bottom since July 2023, matches harmonically the tops and bottoms since July 2015.
In addition, the 1W RSI is now on its 2nd bottom of the ‘Buy the dip Volatility Phase’, which started after the Higher Lows trend-line that was initiated on the market bottom, peaked and turned sideways. In 2016 – 2017, that was the ultimate guide to buy low through Bitcoin’s last year of Bull Cycle all the way to the Top.
Based on this analogy, BTC should now form a Channel Up that might form the next Higher High in June, pull-back in July, then new Higher High in August, pull-back in September and final push for a Cycle Top around November. Based on this pattern, this may very well be around 200k but again, a 1W RSI top sell signal is more fitting.
But do you think the market will continue replicating the 2015 – 2017 Bull Cycle all the way to the top? And if yes, is a 200k peak plausible? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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