I am currently bearish again in BTCUSD.
After hitting all time high in December 2025
as expected BTCUSD was not able anymore to increase gains.
THE LONG TERM TREND IS BULLISH; BUT MID AND SHORT TERM TREND bearish.
Above 100.582 although it seems that bulls gain power, the bears attack fast and successfully
the bulls. (orange area).
In the chart you see how I dvided the prices into two categories(red+green areas) OR WHERE BULLS (green) and bears(red) have control.
AT 100K;9560 specially volatility increases fast, a sign that these areas are fought by both powers. In these ares mayn false signals and false breakouts on both sides are possible.(fire)
A drop below 90560 leads BTC to 81229,73k and 68,7K
Below that area we will face a choppy but volatile market. The increaisng of volatility gains power of news,(also fake news), sudden catalysts.So be aware specially in those areas.
The long term POC(Magnet sysmbol) is located at 49559 now.That is very important as
these locations are very big magnets and attracting the price.
In between we have very dangerouse gap that is also attracting BTCUSD price.(see the Chart)
Here some important new of the last days and my interpretation that align with my bearish signal:
Republicans will still have to deal with the debt ceiling in 2025….(the news and Interpretation how it will affect financial markets and crypto in 2025)
Although President-elect Donald Trump wanted to start 2025 without having to worry about the debt ceiling, he did not get his wish. Addressing the debt ceiling, which will be reinstated on January 2, is still on the list of congressional Republicans’ New Year’s resolutions. The House last week fell far short of passing a two-year extension of the suspension of the limit as part of a GOP-led government spending bill.
M y Interpretation:
Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general:
The news regarding the U.S. debt ceiling highlights a potential risk to financial markets and the broader economy in 2025. Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general:
Key Points from the News
Debt Ceiling Reinstatement
The U.S. debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025, and congressional Republicans are expected to address it. A debt ceiling crisis can cause political and economic uncertainty, especially if there is a failure to raise or suspend the ceiling.
Government Spending Package
Last week, Congress passed a government funding bill that did not address the debt ceiling, disappointing President-elect Donald Trump’s wishes to resolve the issue sooner.
Potential Market Impact
Debt ceiling crises in the past have led to market volatility, particularly in equities, as investors react to the uncertainty and the potential for a government shutdown or a default on U.S. debt obligations.
Implications for Bitcoin and Markets
Increased Risk and Volatility
Debt ceiling concerns often create broader market anxiety, especially in traditional markets. Bitcoin, being seen as a “safe-haven” asset by some investors, could experience increased interest if there are fears of U.S. financial instability, a default, or a downgrade of U.S. credit.
Demand for Alternative Assets
During periods of heightened economic uncertainty or risk of financial crisis, assets like Bitcoin and gold are often viewed as alternative stores of value. Investors may seek refuge in these assets, increasing demand and possibly providing upward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
Risk of U.S. Dollar Volatility
Dollar volatility due to the debt ceiling issue could also lead to heightened interest in Bitcoin. A weakened dollar could boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, pushing prices higher. Conversely, if the U.S. government resolves the debt ceiling issue efficiently, the pressure on Bitcoin may ease, and its price may fall.
Market Sentiment and Speculation
Given Bitcoin’s speculative nature, market participants may react strongly to news surrounding the debt ceiling. Speculative trading could amplify price swings, especially as investors price in possible outcomes of the debt ceiling debate.
How This Affects Your Bitcoin Position
Potential for Volatility(Fire symbol in the chart)
If the debt ceiling issue creates a crisis, Bitcoin could see increased demand as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving prices higher in the short term. However, if the situation stabilizes without a major crisis, the demand might subside, and Bitcoin’s price could stabilize or decline.
Key Resistance and Support
Watch for key levels around the current Bitcoin price (e.g., 93K–95K). If the debt ceiling crisis intensifies, these levels could be breached in either direction depending on market sentiment. 90K and 85K remain critical support zones if the bearish trend continues.
Monitor Global Sentiment
Keep an eye on broader market sentiment, especially around U.S. debt ceiling developments and their effects on traditional financial markets. If broader markets experience a sell-off due to debt ceiling issues, Bitcoin could initially benefit from a flight to alternative assets.
Conclusion
The debt ceiling issue is a significant risk factor that could cause increased volatility in both traditional financial markets and Bitcoin. Given Bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against uncertainty, the news could lead to short-term price increases if investors flock to it as a safe-haven asset. However, it’s essential to monitor how the U.S. government addresses the issue and the overall market sentiment. Continue to manage risk carefully, as the situation may evolve quickly.
Bitcoin’s ‘Kimchi Premium’ Jumps Amid South Korean Political Turmoil (this news+ I nterpretation)
“Kimchi Premium,” which refers to the price gap between Bitcoin on South Korean exchange Upbit compared to Coinbase, has surged to the range of 3-5% this week, according to data compiled by blockchain data platform CryptoQuant. An increase in the metric usually indicates an elevated demand from South Korea-based investors in Bitcoin. The same metric for stablecoin Tether also has surged to the similar range.
“South Korea faces an unprecedented wealth outflow amid political turmoil, declining birth rates, and slowing growth,” said Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant. “Inflation fears drive conversions of won assets into US stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and dollars. Many crypto investors prefer exchanges over banks, with Tether and Bitcoin trading at 2-5% premiums.
I nterpretation:
This news about Bitcoin’s “Kimchi Premium” highlights the dynamics of South Korea’s crypto market amid political and economic turmoil. Let’s break it down in the context of trading approach and bearish signal:
Key Insights from the News
Kimchi Premium Surge (3-5%)
The “Kimchi Premium” reflects the higher price of Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges compared to global exchanges like Coinbase. A 3-5% premium signals elevated demand from South Korean retail investors.
This surge suggests strong local buying interest, likely driven by uncertainty in traditional markets and the weakening South Korean won.
Inflation Concerns and Asset Diversification
Wealth outflows and inflation fears are pushing South Korean investors to move their capital into alternative assets, including Bitcoin, Tether, US stocks, and gold.
A preference for crypto exchanges over banks adds to the demand, with Bitcoin and Tether trading at a premium.
Political Turmoil
President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration, impeachment, and the ongoing crisis have destabilized financial markets. The uncertainty adds to investor anxiety, further increasing the demand for alternative assets.
Retail-Driven Market
South Korea’s crypto market is predominantly retail-driven due to restrictions on corporate accounts. This means that market sentiment and speculative activity significantly influence prices.
Weakened South Korean Won
The won’s decline against the US dollar (0.35%) adds to the appeal of USD-denominated assets like Bitcoin and Tether. This could sustain or even expand the premium.
Implications for Bitcoin’s Price
Short-Term Buying Pressure in South Korea
The Kimchi Premium surge indicates localized demand but doesn’t necessarily mean a global price rally. The premium reflects South Korea’s retail enthusiasm, not broader market strength.
Impact of Retail Speculation
Retail-driven buying can create short-term upward momentum but often lacks the sustainability of institutional-driven demand. If global macro factors or technical resistance levels remain bearish, the local demand may not prevent further declines.
Risk of a Bubble or Sudden Sell-Off
A rising premium can sometimes signal excessive speculation. If South Korean retail investors begin unwinding positions, it could lead to a sharp local correction, adding selling pressure to global markets.
How This Aligns with Your Bearish Signal
Localized vs. Global Trends
While the Kimchi Premium shows localized buying pressure, your bearish signal likely reflects global market trends. Bitcoin’s recent drop from 104K to 93K aligns with broader market dynamics and not just South Korea-specific activity.
Watch for Technical Reactions
If Bitcoin approaches key support levels (e.g., 90K), South Korean demand could provide temporary relief. However, a failure to hold support might invalidate local demand as a bullish factor.
Evaluate Reversals Cautiously
Even with rising demand in South Korea, monitor if the global bearish trend shows signs of reversal (e.g., higher lows, breaking key resistance levels like 95K–100K). Until then, stick with your bearish outlook.
Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Support Zones
Key levels to watch: 90K and 85K. A break below these could signal further downside, regardless of localized buying interest.
Resistance to Watch
If Bitcoin rebounds, resistance at 95K–100K will be crucial to determine whether the bearish trend is weakening.
Potential for False Breakouts
South Korea-driven price spikes might create false breakouts. Ensure your technical signals confirm any potential reversal before adjusting your strategy.
Bottom Line
The surge in the Kimchi Premium reflects localized demand due to South Korea’s political and economic instability. However, this does not necessarily negate the global bearish trend you’ve been following. Continue monitoring global signals, support/resistance levels, and whether the localized buying pressure can translate into broader market strength. Stay disciplined and adapt your strategy based on technical confirmations rather than isolated news events.
News2 Why Bitcoin (Still) Likely Has Not Reached a Cycle Top Yet
Over a longer-term horizon though, there are plenty of indicators that suggest we may still be a way, in both time and price, from a cycle top in Bitcoin.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the aggregate cost paid for all outstanding Bitcoin, has moved up from the < 1 level that has historically marked bear market bottoms in early 2023 to roughly 3 as of late December 2024.
I nterpretation
Let’s break down this news in the context of your bearish signal on Bitcoin and how it could influence the current market dynamics:
Key Insights from the News
MVRV Z-Score at ~3
The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical patterns. Historically, cycle tops occur when this metric moves significantly higher, often near 7.
At a Z-Score of 3, the news implies that Bitcoin is still below levels historically associated with a cycle top. This suggests there could still be room for upward movement in the longer term.
Long-Term Holder (HODLer) Supply Decline
A 7% drop in the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year indicates increased selling pressure from long-term holders. This release of 1.4M BTC into the market adds to the supply, creating potential headwinds for price growth.
Despite this, the news points out that cycle tops typically occur when this indicator drops further, suggesting we haven’t yet reached that point.
ETF Inflows and Market Offset
While long-term holders have been selling, some of this supply pressure has been absorbed by large ETF inflows. However, this balancing act might not sustain the price if selling accelerates.
Uncertainty in Historical Patterns
The article emphasizes that Bitcoin’s historical cycles may not repeat exactly due to limited data. This means that while historical indicators suggest the cycle top isn’t yet reached, the current cycle could deviate.
Implications for Your Bearish Signal
Short-Term Downtrend
The bearish signal you received two weeks ago aligns with the current price drop from 104K to 93K. This selling pressure might be attributed to long-term holders liquidating part of their positions, as the news mentions.
Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
Despite the short-term bearish action, the MVRV Z-Score and HODLer supply suggest the cycle top may still be ahead. This means the current drop might be part of a broader consolidation or retracement before another rally.
ETF Inflows as a Buffer
While long-term holders selling adds pressure, ETF inflows could stabilize the market. Watch for news about ETF approvals, inflows, or rejections, as these could heavily influence Bitcoin’s next move.
How to Align with Technical Analysis
Short-Term Action
Stick with your bearish signal for now, as the price trend supports it. If Bitcoin continues to fall or fails to hold key support levels (e.g., 90K), the bearish trend could intensify.
Monitor Key Levels
Watch for significant support zones (e.g., 90K or 85K). A break below these levels could validate further downside.
On the flip side, if Bitcoin starts consolidating and moves back above 95K or 100K, it may signal a potential reversal.
Use Leading Indicators
Keep an eye on the MVRV Z-Score, HODLer behavior, and ETF news. A change in these metrics could signal whether the bearish momentum is temporary or part of a broader trend.
Bottom Line
The news indicates that the current bearish trend might be a retracement within a larger bull market. However, in the short term, supply pressure from long-term holders and bearish technical signals could continue to drive prices lower. Stay cautious, manage risk, and monitor both the technical levels and fundamental indicators closely. This combination will help you navigate the market effectively.