BTC Market Cycle: Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution
Timeframe: Weekly
Analysis
BTC/USDT is following a classic Wyckoff Market Cycle, transitioning through three distinct phases
1️⃣ Accumulation Phase (2018–2020): Smart money accumulated BTC at low prices in a tight range after the previous bear market. Low volatility and bearish sentiment dominated this period.
2️⃣ Manipulation Phase (2022–2023): A choppy sideways market with false breakouts and shakeouts, designed to confuse retail traders and consolidate more BTC into institutional hands.
3️⃣ Distribution Phase (2024–2025): A euphoric uptrend, where institutions are likely offloading positions into the enthusiasm of retail buyers. This phase often marks the cycle peak.
Trading Strategy
– For Long-Term Investors : Consider scaling out positions during this distribution phase. Prepare to re-enter during the next accumulation cycle.
– For Swing Traders : Look for reversal signals in the distribution zone. A confirmed breakdown could lead to significant retracement toward previous accumulation zones.
Risk Management
– Be cautious of euphoria-driven rallies.
– Watch volume and price action for signs of weakness (e.g., declining momentum, sudden sell-offs).
Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management.
Hope this analysis finds you well! BTC/USDT is showcasing a textbook Wyckoff Market Cycle with clear phases of Accumulation, Manipulation, and now Distribution. Are we nearing the peak, or could this rally surprise us further? Let me know your thoughts!