Hi All! A day off is a good time for reflection.
Oil Price Outlook: Potential Fifth Wave Impulse Up
There is a high probability that oil prices, having broken through the upper boundary of the regression channel, may continue their upward movement with a target in the 81.20–84.00 range. This could be the fifth wave of an upward impulse.
Wave Structure Analysis:
Wave 1 – Leading diagonal
Wave 2 – Double zigzag
Wave 3 – Strong upward movement
Wave 4 – Deep correction as a single zigzag, reaching the maximum possible level of 71.50
‼️ Further decline invalidates this scenario.
Technical Confirmation:
Bullish divergence is clearly visible on both the H1 and H4 charts.
AO and RSI indicators are turning upwards while the price continued to decline, indicating a trend reversal.
The price has not fallen below 71.50, where bulls have established strong support.
Fundamental Catalyst:
Recent news about tariff increases, including on goods from Canada (such as oil), could be a bullish driver for oil prices.
Key Targets:
First target: 77.36
Local high: 81.00
Major resistance level: 84.00
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