The Dollar Index is drifting at the key 99.5 mark. This strategic support level, which has held since early 2024, is on the verge of collapsing.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t just about the strength of the dollar. What’s at stake is the monetary sovereignty of the United States, caught between inflation, politics, and election-season hysteria.
And make no mistake — this has nothing to do with technical analysis. What we’re witnessing is a fundamental fire, and Donald Trump and his administration are fanning the flames.
Powell: “Rates remain unchanged.” But for how long?
Just days ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered what seemed to be a firm message:
“We are in a wait-and-see mode. Cutting rates prematurely could do harm.”
“If inflation accelerates, more difficult decisions may follow.”
On the surface — classic hawkish rhetoric. But in reality, this isn’t resolve.
It’s a delay tactic. Even Powell admits:
“The labor market is walking a fine line.”
“Economic growth weakened in Q1.”
“Business sentiment is deteriorating.”
“Tariff policy could lead to stagflation.”
“Political pressure is mounting by the week.”
The Fed says, “It’s too early to cut rates.”
But the market hears something entirely different: “We’re getting close.”
Trump applies pressure
Ahead of the elections, Trump declares:
“If we don’t cut rates now, we’ll lose to China, Europe, and our own markets.”
This isn’t just campaign rhetoric. It’s an open challenge to the Fed’s independence.
And history already tells us what happens when Trump applies pressure — 2019 rate cuts proved he can break through Powell’s defenses.
What the charts are saying
The Dollar Index (USDX) is locked in a persistent downward channel.
The 103.0 support zone has been broken
The 101.17 level remains the final significant support
99.5 is already being tested as a potential sell-off trigger
Below that — only air until 98.0 and 97.5
The technical setup confirms a fundamental truth:
The market no longer believes in the dollar’s strength.
What if the Fed actually cuts rates?
If the Fed moves to cut, USDX will break below 99 and enter a systemic phase of weakening.
Capital will flow into gold (as if it hasn’t already gone far enough), oil, crypto, and high-yield emerging markets.
The United States will lose its competitive edge in monetary policy,
and the dollar will slowly cease to function as the global anchor it once was.
Powell can talk tough all he wants. The market is no longer listening.
The Dollar Index isn’t dropping because rates are already cut — it’s falling because everyone knows it’s just a matter of time.
U.S. monetary policy has lost the initiative, and market expectations have taken over.
Today, the Fed rate is no longer a tool of control. It’s a signal of approaching capitulation.
The question is no longer “Can we hold 99.5?”
The real question is: “What happens after it breaks?”
Manipulation or strategy? Black swans on a leash
Powell’s rate policy, DXY charts, inflation forecasts — all of it loses clarity when the dominant market force is no longer economics, but politics.
We live in an era where markets break not from bad data, but from tweets, briefings, and backroom deals — moves that only reveal themselves in the charts after the fact.
That’s what makes the current cycle the most toxic in the last 15 years.
Markets aren’t just volatile — they’ve become irrational.
Trade war: scalpel in a surgeon’s hand or a bat in a brawler’s grip?
Tariffs aren’t new.
But in Trump’s hands, they’ve evolved — from macroeconomic tools to blunt political weapons.
He uses them as battering rams — to force concessions, corner opponents, and set up ideal conditions for insider gains.
The market reacts exactly as you’d expect:
Tariffs announced — indexes fall
Panic ensues — capital flees into dollars and gold
Within 48 hours — videos surface of Trump and his allies joking about the “hundreds of billions” they made during the crash
This isn’t conspiracy.
It’s already triggered official investigations, but everyone knows: the odds of accountability are near zero.
And that’s the biggest risk for fundamental analysis today:
It’s powerless against narratives crafted behind closed doors.
So who’s really running the market?
Trump is deliberately deflating the bubble. Loudly. Dramatically. On camera.
But the goal isn’t destruction. It’s control.
And while Powell fears making a mistake, Trump fears only one thing — losing control of the narrative.
The market is no longer a field for rational actors.
It has become a battlefield, where officials already understand:
You can control more than just money through the market — you can shape public consciousness.
How not to lose your footing in this chaos?
We’ll break it down in the next part of the Global Market Overview. Stay tuned.