Gold surged to nearly $3,500, but multiple indicators now point to a potential top. A short-term correction or consolidation phase appears likely before any new highs.
Bearish Signals Across the Board:
RSI Divergence: RSI failed to confirm recent highs, showing bearish divergence.
Momentum Fading: MACD & momentum oscillators rolled over → rally exhaustion.
Volume Shift: Rising on down moves, drying up on rallies → classic distribution.
Bearish Candlesticks: Spinning tops + bearish engulfing patterns signal reversal risk.
Elliott Wave: Likely completed 5-wave impulse → next up: ABC correction?
Cycles: April top aligns with intermediate cycle peak → watch May for cycle low.
Seasonality: Historically weak May–June period approaching.
COT Data: Speculators still long, but commercials heavily short → caution warranted.
Trade Setups
Short-Term (1–5 Days)
Short Entry: ~$3,400
Target: $3,270 → $3,215
Stop: Above $3,460
Medium-Term (1–4 Weeks)
Short below $3,215 → Target $2,970
Or go long on confirmed bounce at $3,150–$3,180
Long-Term (1–6 Months)
🟢 Bullish bias after correction completes
Buy zones: $2,960–$2,720
Targets: $3,540 → $3,900+
Stop: Below $2,700
🧭 Outlook Summary:
Bias: Cautiously Bearish (short-term) → Bullish (long-term)
Gold likely topped in April — expect weakness or sideways action before the next major leg higher. Be patient for a better buying opportunity later this spring/summer.