In the early Asian session, spot gold showed a trend of rising and falling. The gold price reached a high of US$3370.58/ounce and then fell back to around the 3350 mark for consolidation. After experiencing a sharp drop of nearly 3%, the gold price ushered in a strong rebound, with a single-day increase of 1.83%, and finally closed at US$3348.50. This wave of rebound was mainly driven by the weakness of the US dollar and the entry of market bottom-fishing funds.
The trade deadlock fell into a “Rashomon”, and the rebound of the US dollar was blocked
The current gold market is caught in a fierce game of long and short factors. The Asian power issued a solemn statement, emphasizing that if the US side really wants to solve the problem, all unilateral tariffs should be canceled immediately. This statement is in sharp contrast to the “negotiation signal” recently released by the White House, making the trade outlook more confusing.
Affected by this, the US dollar index fell 0.61% to 99.29, while gold received strong support from safe-haven buying.
Quaid believes that the gap between the positions of the United States and China on trade issues is as huge as the Pacific Ocean, and this uncertainty will continue to affect the market trend. The US dollar rebounded but was blocked. Although Trump’s attitude eased and it strengthened briefly in the early stage, it showed signs of fatigue again in the morning. At the same time, the US stock market achieved three consecutive positive days, and the S&P 500 index rose by 2.03%, with technology stocks leading the gains.
Quaid’s analysis:
Looking forward to the later period, high-level fluctuations may become the main theme, and traders need to grasp the rhythm.
The current market presents a pattern: First, the uncertainty of the trade war. If the US insists on imposing new tariffs, the gold price may hit the $3,500 mark again; second, the suspense of the Fed’s policy. Whether the May meeting will release a signal of interest rate cuts will become a key turning point; finally, the trend of the US dollar. If subsequent economic data continues to deteriorate, the US dollar index may fall below the 99 integer mark.
Market operation strategies:
Go long on a pullback of 3335, stop loss at 3330, look at 3380
Go short after rebounding at 3380, stop loss at 3390, and look at 3330