This post is based on my learnings from #ICT Quarterly Shift Analysis teachings.
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Previous Analysis:
In September 2024, I published my quarterly shift analysis for #Gold. Back then, I estimated a shift in the market structure for Gold on or around the US Presidential Election date. It happened exactly as outlined. I estimated Gold would make a bearish move or create a large range; it indeed created a large range and has been moving within the range since then. The top of the range is 2790.10, and the bottom of the range is 2536.60.
Then I posted a new Quarterly Shift Analysis on 13 Jan 2025. I specified the time window for a shift in the market structure to happen, and price indeed delivered as outlined. I said that between the 20th and 31st of January, Gold would determine its new direction. On 30 Jan 2025, Gold created a new all-time high and closed a strong daily candle above the range described before. Gold hit and exceeded all the targets outlined in my analysis.
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New Quarterly Shift Analysis:
As we get closer to the end of April, Gold seems to be in a rush to make new highs and hit new targets. I believe that from the end of April to the 2nd of May 2025, Gold can hit $3411 and possibly $3498 or $3500. If it’s too aggressive, $3582 can also be reached.
Between 30 April and 02 May (NFP Announcement Date), Gold should make a new quarterly shift. The possible scenarios are as follows:
1. Continuation: Gold could make a retracement and then continue the current uptrend for the next 3–4 months. The retracement could go as deep as 3180, 3068 and 2982. The uptrend targets will be the targets mentioned above plus 3618 and 3738.
2. Enter a long-term range (My guess is this is the most likely scenario): Gold could enter a new long-term range for the next 3–4 months. The bottom of the range will be 2958, and the top of the range will be the highest high created by Gold by or before 30 April to 2nd of May. If this scenario happens, it is a good chance to look for sell opportunities near or within the top 25% level of the range and look for buy opportunities near or within the bottom 25% level of the range.
3. Bearish Move: If Gold closes a strong daily candle below 2958, then for the next 3–4 months, it could go lower towards 2832, 2790, 2728, and 2662. This scenario might not be highly likely, but in the event if it happens, it’s a wonderful opportunity for long-term Gold investors to buy and hold Gold.
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Disclaimer: This is not a signal, just an analysis for your consideration and benefit. Please combine it with your own analysis.