Junk Bonds: Risk Appetite on Support!

Credit markets have been buzzing — headlines warn of record outflows and panic rotation. But HYG, the high-yield bond ETF, just told a different story.

What is HYG?
It tracks “junk bonds” — loans to companies with weaker credit. They offer high yields, but carry high risk. When investors are confident, they chase these. When fear hits, they dump them — fast.

The Chart Setup:
We’ve just seen a clean rebound off 75.72 — a long-standing “fear line” going back to:
• 2008 GFC lows
• Covid crash in 2020
• And now, 2025 macro tension

Zooming into the 1H chart (see inset), the rebound off 75.72 was sharp and orderly — not panic-driven.

Why it matters:
Last week: $9.6B exited junk bond funds (20-year record)
BKLN saw its biggest outflow ever
But technically? This support is still holding.

The message:
The market might be pricing fear — but not full-blown stress.
Break below 75.72? That changes everything.

Watchlist:
BKLN – leveraged loans
LQD – safer credit rotation?
TLT – treasury flow = fear gauge
BTC 🟧 – Bitcoin as macro hedge again?

For now, risk appetite is hanging on by a technical thread. Let’s see if it holds.

One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR

ps. things can change fast so we will monitor..alerts are ON

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