If there is any NASDAQ company that is weathering the strong downturn, one of them is NETFLIX. Last Thursday, it presented BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED results for both Q1 2025 and the guidance for the next quarter.
As anticipated by the Company, this quarter is the first in which it does not publish subscriber data. It only states that growth has been “slightly” higher than estimated. This leads to focusing attention on revenue and margin growth, which show a truly positive evolution.
The EBIT margin is expanding (to 31.7% vs. 28.1% in Q1 2024) thanks to price increases in various geographies and the good performance of advertising plans. All of this, in turn, favors the acceleration of free cash flow generation (+26% y/y, up to $2,789M).
For the full year, it reaffirms guidance and maintains its estimate of reaching revenues of $43.5B/$44.5B (+12%/+14% y/y) with an EBIT margin of 29% (vs. 28% previously). In short, good figures that lead us to reiterate our positive view on the stock.
–> And its technical aspect?
If we observe the chart, its trend is clearly BULLISH, and after a price pullback, finding support on its dynamic support and RESPECTING IT!!, it has regained BULLISH STRENGTH, which, supported by the presented results, EVERYTHING POINTS TO NEW HIGHS.
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Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions when the price exceeds 1000.
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 1060 zone (+5%)
–> Stop Loss at 947 (-5%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
–> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-5%) (coinciding with the 947 of position 1).
–> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (1060).
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CLARIFICATIONS OF THE SET UP
*** How to know which 2 long positions to open? Let’s take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue to gain value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
–> Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price makes a downward movement of -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on the gains, therefore, the risk becomes lower and lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable trends in the price can be exploited, maximizing profits.