Nifty showed strong resilience in the face of initial geopolitical tensions, with bulls managing to push the index higher despite macro uncertainties. This signaled underlying strength and suggested that the market wasn’t ready to roll over just yet.
However, looking at the current structure, the recent price action hints that bullish momentum might be losing steam. The index faced selling pressure after attempting new highs, and the price has started to retrace.
Key Level to Watch: March High
The March high now becomes a critical decision point. As long as Nifty sustains above this level, the broader bullish structure technically remains intact. But—and this is key—a decisive close below the March high followed by sustained price action beneath it could trigger a deeper correction.
If that breakdown happens, we could see:
A gap fill play unfold
A possible move toward the demand zone near 23,000
And if sentiment worsens, a retest of the “election candle” low near 21,200 could be on the table
Conclusion: Bulls are clearly getting tired. Momentum is fading. March high = make-or-break level. Below that, the path of least resistance might shift downward, and the market could slip into a corrective phase—possibly until election-related clarity emerges.