Here’s my analysis based on the provided chart:
Market Trend & Structure**
1. **Nifty 50 Price Action:**
– The index is in a **corrective phase**, as seen from the recent decline.
– The price is currently near the lower trendline of the **channel**, indicating potential **support**.
– A breakdown below this channel could lead to further downside moves.
2. **Fibonacci & Trend Channels:**
– The Fibonacci extension levels show a **retracement phase** within a long-term bullish trend.
– The price is approaching a **critical zone near the 2.382 level**, which could act as **support**. This is expected on 3rd – 6th March.
Indicators & Signals**
1. **Sell & Buy Signals:**
– Multiple **Sell signals** appeared at market peaks, followed by a decline.
– Some **Buy signals** are appearing, indicating a potential reversal zone.
2. **Delta Candles & Combined CALL & PUT Candles:**
– The **Delta Candles (Call – Put)** show declining values, indicating bearish sentiment.
– The **Combined CALL & PUT Candles (Subtract Method)** also show a decreasing trend.
3. **Reversal Probability (23.1%)**
– The probability of a trend reversal is relatively **low**, meaning the downtrend could still continue.
4. **Trend Meter & Volume Analysis:**
– The volume is increasing during the downtrend, which suggests **strong selling pressure**.
– The **Trend Meter** shows more **red** than green, indicating **bearish momentum**.
Key Takeaways:
– **Bullish Scenario (Reversal Expected)** between 3rd- 6th March.
– If the price holds near the **trendline support**, & also the anchored VWAP we might see a **bounce**.
– Confirmation would come from a **green trend meter** and increasing **buy signals**.
– Look for a move **above 22,627** for further upside.
– **Bearish Scenario (Further Decline)**
– If the price **breaks below the trendline**, the **downtrend will continue**.
– A break below **21,976 – 21,973** could trigger more selling.