There was a very accurate pattern that revolved around Bitcoin’s halving event where we would see massive growth after the halving. Cyclical patterns are valid and true until they are not.
The halving pattern is now in question because the market is no longer the same. Some people are still following this pattern, this old map, but the pattern broke even before the halving event.
Bitcoin produced a new All-Time High in 2024, before the halving, this has never been seen before. A new ATH right before the halving.
Bitcoin’s dynamics changed completely even before the halving, which is what we are seeing now. The institutions changed the market.
The big players and Michael Saylor changed the market dynamics, and Mr. Saylor is about to make another one of his fun moves.
In 2022 the orthodox end of the bear-market happened in June. This was the bottom for Ethereum and also for many of the major projects. This would have been the bottom for Bitcoin also but in November, where the market was set to produce a higher low compared to June, one giant whale made a move that produced a lower low, and thus the map was changed once more.
This lower low is a technical double bottom, June 2022 vs November 2022, but this is still something that happened because of one single major force. This same force has been making moves and these moves have been affecting the markets predictable patterns and is making it quite unpredictable.
The halving map can no longer be followed because it already broke down and thus no map can be followed based on historical data.
This happens not only with Bitcoin but all financial assets, all trading pairs; everything in life continues to evolve. We might not be able to predict easily what might happen next but we still have the charts which shows us everything we need to know.
We have two schools of thought right now in the technical analysis world. One says that Bitcoin will grow because it must grow because… Well, because it has to go up.
This school of thought says Bitcoin must grow because it has been sideways for a long time, because in the past, it always grows. But the market has no time limit, the market is not going to die, so the market can grow next week, next year or next month. It doesn’t need to happen now, nor yesterday nor today just so that someone’s beliefs or ideas are met. We know how the market is doing by looking at the charts, and based on its behavior we can make educated predictions as to where prices are most likely headed next.
The other school of thought uses data to make its predictions and ignores any assumptions based on how the market was behaving ten years ago. In the past we had no spot ETFs, no giants were playing, it was a completely different game.
Miners selling would crash the market without a doubt and a new bear market would be present as soon as they decide to sell. Present day, miners selling is just an opportunity for a whale to buy Bitcoins in bulk, maybe even at a cheaper price compared to the market rate.
We have two long-term moving averages plotted on the chart: MA200 and EMA144. These are about to be tested both.
Michael Saylor’s next move is not a bullish one, he is about to secure some profits.
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Namaste.