The tariffs were also successfully implemented. In response, the market bulls and bears also responded strongly. After all, the 3105-3142 area rose and fell in seconds, which was a terrifying market. Of course, to be honest, this wave of turbulence was mostly caused by institutions. After all, the market smashing was also extremely strong. However, I don’t agree with the impact of the tariffs implemented last night. First of all, looking back at the market situation, Trump said that tariffs would be imposed on many countries, which actually meant a 20% retaliatory tariff on the European Union. As for some other countries, only a 10% general levy was implemented, which relatively resulted in an unequal tariff situation. Of course, Trump also reiterated that Canada and Mexico still have tariff exemptions in a limited range of goods. So what impact will this situation have on the bulls and bears of gold? To be honest, personally, I have undoubtedly overestimated the announcement of this tariff. In other words, the implementation of this tariff is a bit insufficient in my eyes. After all, I expected that Trump would make major changes in his previous speech. As a result, it is a significant reduction compared to his previous years in office. This has also limited the outbreak of risk aversion. Of course, trade risks definitely exist, but through the matter of adding Mexico, this is completely negotiable. For this tariff event, I don’t think there is a big risk stimulus. Of course, the key is to see whether the market buys it. If the market thinks it will stimulate long-term risk aversion, then it will inevitably be pushed up by buying. However, the intensity of yesterday’s tariffs was not strong in my opinion. This may also limit the outbreak of longs to a certain extent. After all, the market’s expectations for it were too strong in the early stage, which also led to the early rise of longs, which also included the digestion of news. For this, you still need to be cautious.
Then looking back at the current market, the tariffs have been implemented, and in a blink of an eye, we will also welcome the announcement of non-agricultural data. As far as the current market is concerned, the various US economic data have also improved relatively. After all, the substantial growth of ADP has undoubtedly dispelled the rumors of economic downturn. After all, the warming of the labor market undoubtedly reflects the warming of the US economy. Under the influence of tariffs, it has indeed boosted the US economy. Of course, the impact of the data is not just that. The current remarks about the slowdown in inflation are self-defeating. Due to the implementation of tariffs, inflation is likely to rise further. This directly hits the Fed’s expectations of a rate cut, and the warming of the labor market has further limited the possibility of the Fed implementing a rate cut. In this regard, no matter what the final result of the market outlook is, based on the current situation, I personally think that it is really difficult for the Fed to implement a rate cut this year, which has also led to a reduction in the momentum of gold bulls. Moreover, if this situation continues, the Fed does not rule out the possibility of being forced to implement a rate hike. Although Trump is also calling on the Fed to cut interest rates, the fact is that it cannot be implemented at present, unless the US talks with other countries again during this period to discuss a reduction, as it did with Canada and Mexico. Otherwise, as time goes by, as the tariff issue intensifies, inflation will be restricted, thus affecting the implementation of the Fed’s policy. At this time, you can pay more attention to the market dynamics.
So for today, although gold is currently stimulated to rise, I don’t quite agree with the emergence of new highs for gold bulls. To put it bluntly, for now, even if a new high appears, gold breaks through 3160, which is more of a possibility of inducing more. I am not saying that I am blindly bearish, but you have actually seen that gold is blocked at a high level, and the momentum of falling back is also extremely strong, especially gold started three consecutive positives last Friday, and as of Tuesday this week, it stopped falling near the highest point of 3149. The bull outbreak is already facing exhaustion. Even if the bulls rise again today, where can they rise, to 3200? Then what? You should know that it is cold at the top. Unless there is absolute bullish momentum to support gold to continue to rise, there will be a peak at any time. The short space is still large, just waiting for an opportunity. In particular, the sharp increase in ADP has led to the market betting on the negative non-agricultural data. Once gold is blocked from rising, it will inevitably collapse in an instant. Especially when this kind of news stimulates gold to rise, retail investors in the market will not consider its fundamentals. They will only think that interest rate cuts are absolutely good for bulls and the implementation of tariffs is absolutely good for bulls, which will lead to buying. This is also a chance for institutions to snipe bulls. For this, for today and tomorrow, even if gold breaks a new high, you should not blindly follow the trend. Remember to guard against the possibility of a resurgence of shorts. In this regard, I personally prefer the possibility of shorts looking back at the possibility of breaking 3100 and falling to 3080-3050. You can be cautious about this.
As for today’s opening, gold opened high at 3141, and encountered a flash crash at 3128 at the opening, and then rebounded to 3139 and then flash crashed to 3123. This performance can be said to be extremely strong. In this case, I certainly cannot notify the operation. After all, the fluctuation is too fast. With a quote every second, even if you give an order, you may not be able to enter the market in time. For this, you still need to wait for the market to calm down. As for today’s market, the fluctuation may be relatively strong. You can wait and see and be cautious. As for the specific operation details, I will give them in real time. Remember to strictly follow my requirements to control the position and stop loss.