We have been respecting an upward channel since fall of 2022 (16K).
Breaking down each year into a cycle, Fib levels show us that we see a bull run, then a retest.
I used Cycle B start/bottom based on the prior Cycle A’s retracement, and so on. However, I didn’t consider a Cycle to be at the official start/bottom unless the following candles demonstrated a break to the upside over the prior cycle high.
For example:
Cycle A (approx Oct ’22 to Sept ’23)
Fib bottom (0) 16K to top (100) 32K (approx 2x increase)
Retraced 38.2% (0.618) to 26K
Cycle B (approx Oct ’23 to Sept ’24)
Fib bottom (0) 26K to top (100) 75K (approx 3x increase)
Retraced 38.2% (0.618) to 55K
Cycle C (approx Oct ’24 to Sept ’25?)
Fib bottom (0) 55K to top (100) 109K (approx 2x increase)
Retraced 61.8% (0.382) to approx 78K
(STILL TESTING THIS LEVEL).
If BTC can break 109K before Sept ’25, new upside levels at 1.618 (142K), 2.618 (195K), 3.618 (249K)*
If BTC drops below 75K, upward channel is invalidated, with support levels (prior cycle fibs) at 68K, 56K and 32K.