Overview: Potential M-Pattern (Double Top) Formation
Analyzing the US30 4H chart, we might see a bearish M-pattern develop next week.
Here’s why:
Price Action: Rejection near the 0.786 – 0.886 Fibonacci zone suggests a potential reversal.
Bollinger Bands : Price hit the upper band and is contracting, signaling a potential downside move.
RSI : Falling from overbought and heading toward 40, confirming bearish momentum.
MACD : Bearish crossover happening, with the histogram turning red—momentum is shifting down.
Fundamental Catalyst: Next week’s economic events:
- CPI Data (Tuesday)
- Retail Sales (Thursday) ️
- Unemployment Claims (Thursday) If inflation remains high, the Fed could maintain a hawkish stance, further weighing on US30.
Bearish Trade Plan
Entry Zone: 44,600 – 44,750 (Watch for rejection)
Confirmation:
Bearish engulfing candle
RSI below 50
MACD maintaining bearish momentum Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 44,350 (0.618 Fib Level)
TP2: 43,950 (0.5 Fib Level)
TP3: 43,075 (0.382 Fib Level – Strong Demand Zone)
Stop Loss: Above 44,900 to protect against false breakouts
Risk-Reward: Aim for 1:2 or better
Final Thoughts 🤔
If the M-pattern plays out, expect a bearish move next week. However, CPI data will be a key factor—stay flexible and manage risk!
Trade smart & stay disciplined!
Do not risk more than 1% of your account.
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Regards,
Nozuk
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