Download the Chart and Use the Groups of Drawings to Navigate the HTF Bias(Trend) and Context (PD Arrays), Narrative (Probable PD Array to be reached for next), Entries (1H/15m), and Risk (CBDR and levels in chart)
With the period starting mid-week Oct 24, 2022 – Thursday Journal
- Define Weekly Range Profile with IPDA True Day Markers
Done – IPDA True Day Lines
Out of IPDA 60 Day Range, Price is in the bottom of a Discount range
Guess for Weekly Range Profile – Classic Tue Low of Week
Reason: Tues had a lower close, my hypothesis is that Price will make the high of the week aligned with the short term weekly high from Sep 12, 2022
Therefore if Price has not reached the target Premium PD Array by the London session, I aim to buy Orderblocks into the Sep 12 Weekly High before turning Bearish (FULL CONTEXT HYPOTHESIS)
- On 1H Chart, you can frame the target areas you want to trade from
EOD Wednesday – End of NY PM Session ends the day on a higher high and the high of the week so far
Thu Asian Session – Consolidation above the 1H OB from Oct 26th
The 1H OB has been wicked twice in previous NY AM Session
Price has created EQ Candle lows across Wed NY PM Session and Asian Session
Thu London Session – Price moves aggressively into the 1H OB
I know now that I am going to drop down to the 15m timeframe to look to execute an entry
Huge Detail: WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LTF PD ARRAY TO FORM INSIDE THE 1H ORDERBLOCK TO VALIDATE ENTRY
London Session continues to move down into the 1H OB
Thu London Session EOD (5m/15m)
Shortly after 5am Close, 5m and 15m chart shows MSS and creates 15m OB
Looking for Entry on PD Array on 15m Timeframe (More Probable TF)
5m if refined entry
NY Session AM (5m/15m)
BIG NOTE: If News coming at 830a EST, move should happen after that – try to not Trade through 830a – that is GAMBLING, not Trading
Depending on news being present, entry as the following
Entry Price:
Top of OB – 1.157
OB 50% Threshold – 1.156
No High Impact News/Events post 830a EST: 15m candle down close inside of 15m OB
With High Impact News/Events post 830a EST: After 830a or whenever time the news is released (FOMC 2p EST)
Entry in Case Study if condition is present: 845am
Entry in Case Study if condition NOT present: 800am
May just wait for 830a since it’s closer to NY AM Session Open?
Important: What made this entry work?
Price never closed under OB low after entering 15m OB
Price showed 15m MSS (a 2 bar close under 15m OB is low proabability)
William %R Divergence: Price making Lower Lows dropping into 15m OB and Higher Highs on William %R
Exit Analysis:
Original Price Target:
Sept 12th Old Highs (4:1 RR) | Price: 1:174
Intermediate Target(s):
Asian Session Bearish OB (1:1 RR) | Price: 1.162 (50% threshold)
Result: Price failed to reach Original Price Target which makes sense as there did not seem to be high impact news present – with this we would aim for 1:1 or 2:1 moves using CBDR as reference for spread
Move ended up reaching 1:1 RR aligned with 1H Bearish OB BREAKEVEN
Thu IPDA Range Conclusion:
Asian Session created Thu High
NY Session AM Distribution leg created a lower high on 1H timeframe
IPDA True Day closed in Discount area of the Wed 1H OB
Midnight Price closed at EQ area of the Wed 1H OB
With the period starting mid-week Oct 24, 2022 – Friday Journal
Define Weekly Range Profile with IPDA True Day Markers
Done – IPDA True Day Lines
Guess for Weekly Range Profile – Classic Tue Low of Week
Reason: Wed had a higher close and made the High of the Week around 1AM Thu before selling off and creating a lower high, my hypothesis is that Price will finish the week with a choppy day or lower close than Thu
Therefore if Price has not reached the target Premium PD Array by the London session, I aim to buy Orderblocks into the Sep 12 Weekly High before turning Bearish (FULL CONTEXT HYPOTHESIS)
On 1H Chart, you can frame the target areas you want to trade from
EOD Thursday – End of NY PM Session ends with price
Idenfied Wed FVG under the 1H OB that was mitigated Thu
Marked 50% level of FVG
Thu Asian Session
Short Rally after closing below Thu NY Close then selling off later into day
I know now that I am going to drop down to the 15m timeframe to look to execute an entry
Fri London Session – Price moves aggressively down into the 1H FVG
Huge Detail: WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LTF PD ARRAY TO FORM INSIDE THE 1H ORDERBLOCK TO VALIDATE ENTRY
Price creates a 15m Breaker Block and 15m Bullish OB in London
Fri London Session EOD (5m/15m)
Price trades back into Breaker Block at 5am
Entry Price: 1.152
NY Session AM (5m/15m)
Price Trades to Thu NY Session close before print Bearish hammer candle and close below Thu NY Session close
Intermediate Price Target
As price moves into NY Session, adjust 15m OB to last unmitigated candle before 830a EST
BIG NOTE: If News coming at 830a EST, move should happen after that – try to not Trade through 830a – that is GAMBLING, not Trading
Depending on news being present, entry as the following
Same with or without News:
FVG nested Breaker Block retest 845am | Entry Price: 1.152
Important: What made this entry work?
Breaker Block forming on 15m timeframe aligned with 15m OB inside of 1H FVG near EQ (Strong Probablity)
Exit Analysis:
Original Price Target:
Fri Asian Session Highs (2:1 RR) | Price: 1:159
Intermediate Target(s):
Thu NY Session Close (1:1 RR) | Price: 1.156
Result: 2 Trade Opportunities
London Session 530a – 730a, 1:1 (Entry/Exit/RR)
NY Session AM 845a – 1045a, 2:1 (Entry/Exit/RR)
If held through 4p EST close, 2.75:1 RR (2x CBDR from entry)
Fri IPDA Range Conclusion:
Friday closes Higher than NY Session Low
We do not count Sun price action independently
Confirmed Weekly Profile – Classic Tue Low of Week
Price seems to be close to discount than Premium range
Traded inside of Wed Oct 26th candle on Thu/Fri