Looking at gold on the hourly timeframe, I see price currently hovering around 3346.000, testing a key support zone. Here’s my breakdown:
Market Structure & Key Zones:
Resistance at 3365-3370 has been a tough barrier—price tested this level but failed to hold, leading to rejection. If buyers regain control, a break above this zone could target 3375-3380.
Support at 3325-3330 has historically been a demand area where institutions have stepped in—this is a key zone to watch for potential absorption.
Current Consolidation: Price is ranging between 3340-3365, showing indecision but potential liquidity grabs before a decisive move.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI (1-hour): 16.69 → Oversold—gold is deeply bearish, but this could signal exhaustion.
CCI (1-hour): -103.09 → Bearish pressure is strong, but a reversal could come if buyers step in.
Stochastic RSI (1-hour): 18.07 → Slight recovery, but momentum is still weak.
Directional Strength:
ADX (1-hour): 78.71 → A strong trend is in play, confirming that price movements are not random.
DX (1-hour): 90.09 → The trend has high directional strength, meaning institutions are actively moving price.
Scalping Plan:
Bullish Setup: If price holds above 3340, buyers could push toward 3365-3370—this is where I’d look for a breakout setup.
Bearish Play: If price fails to hold 3340, sellers could drive it down toward 3325-3330, where I’d monitor institutional absorption.
Liquidity Trap Setup: A dip below 3340 followed by a sharp reclaim of 3350 could indicate that institutions are accumulating positions—this would be a solid long entry confirmation.
At this point, I’m watching for signs of institutional behavior around 3340. If price sweeps below but immediately reclaims 3350, that’s my signal that big players are absorbing sell-side liquidity. That would confirm a potential reversal, setting up a high-probability long scalp.
I’d like to check volume profile and order flow next to see if liquidity is building up at these levels. That would help confirm whether institutions are accumulating or if we’re in for another bearish wave before a true reversal.