in the previous update I published on June 19th I had SPX in wave c of (III) of a of 3 of (C), expecting a move up to 4540, pullback to 4390 and then a bullish move to 4690.
We have followed the path more or less, but I am doing a major change to my count on SPX.
Analysis of the Structure:
I see the move up from Oct 2022 to July 2023 as an ABC structure, labeled as wave 1. The current phase is a wave 2 that corrects that whole bullish phase. For now, I am considering wave 2 as a triple zigzag.
Right now, we are in wave A of III of (a) of y of 2. It’s too early and not feasible to come up with exact target for wave 2 bottom, but I can consider 3953.05, 3917.09 and 3862.03 as my potential targets.
Analysis of the Cycles:
We are inside the second 40W cycle of the current 18M cycle. On Monday, we expect the first 10D cycle of the second 20D cycle of the first 40D cycle of the current 40W cycle.
The 20W VTL is at 4425 on Monday and breaking that price can confirm that the peak of the current 40W cycle is in, as we are expecting.
The cross that we got for the 20D cycle FLD has generated a target of 4360 expected on September 22nd or 25th (this is a 40D cycle trough).
Some important dates are as follows:
1. 80D cycle trough: 25-27th October 2023
2. 20W cycle trough: 15-30th December 2023
3. 40W cycle trough: May 2024